Kooyong – Australia 2028

@CJ Further to your point places like Malvern, Armadale, Toorak etc are already the Liberals’ best booths in the electorate. It’s likely they could’ve already hit a ceiling (or not) in terms of Jewish voters they could get out of this, unlike Goldstein where Caulfield South has an abundance of them along with Caulfield proper/St Kilda East in Macnamara.

Now of course if there’s revolt south of the City Link and there’s a pro-Liberal swing amongst Jewish voters this seat could become a tossup but if Prahran, Hawthorn, Kew, Camberwell etc continues to gentrify, perhaps that could cancel out that effect.

@Tommo how can already very affluent suburbs continue to ‘gentrify’? Do you perhaps mean ‘densify’? When analysing the electoral roll changes from 2022 I found that the 18-34yr demographic was generally shifting away from inner suburbs and retirees generally increased in number (across most major cities), quite possibly a contributing factor to the Greens underperforming in those types of seats.

I can imagine there would potentially be Frydenburg-Ryan-Ryan-Frydenburg voters out there, not many but some

personally i think its a mistake for Frydenberg to run again.
he was part of the morrsion era and i think the liberal party needs to move on from that.

Not so much being part of the Morrison Era as being one of the main reasons the Morrison Government was defeated.
Certainly Frydenburg returning to Parliament and becoming leader would be on Labor’s wish list, but where could he run and be a chance of winning?
Then there’s his judgement on doing an interview with Sarah Ferguson and expecting only softball questions.

Sarah Ferguson’s question about a political comeback was okay, Josh missed an opportunity to talk about why he wants to return. It is no secret in Kooyong that Josh wants to return, Hamer had been shifted sideways to Malvern, opening the door.

It’s no secret anywhere that he wants to return, but what does he offer?
His solution to the events at Bondi is more immigrant vetting, even more restrictive Gun Laws and even more restrictions of Free Speech, “whether from the Left or the Right:” to quote JF.
Since Tony Burke is saying the same thing, what’s Josh’s point of difference with the Labor Party?

No one expects the labor government to truly do anything about the problem

The issue with Josh Frydenberg running again is that it will create a lot of hype and might force the Liberals to divert resources to Kooyong and spread themselves thinly in Victoria. Liberal members and donors would feel compelled to invest in his return. Media attention would follow. It would be awkward if he were to lose. This would be magnified if he had genuine leadership ambitions.

Him running as a potential leadership candidate may also have a positive contagion effect on other metropolitan Liberal MPs/candidates though, depending on how he frames his ambitions for where he wants to take the Party. Hamer’s result here and Wilson’s achievement in Goldstein shows there is appetite for the Liberals even in a poor cycle – in better circumstances with a well-known candidate whose vision for the party might align much better than Dutton’s did here I can imagine Frydenburg winning as well as Liberal candidates in Menzies, Deakin and Aston in his coattails

Voters didsn’t like him in 2022, and he hasn’t changed with the times.
Sure, Ley won’t say that the Immigration System has failed, but neither will Josh. Hastie is saying that, and that Parliament must be recalled.
Meanwhile, Albo and the rest are just going through the motions rather than governing..

Josh frydenberg has called for stronger immigration laws so that’s about the same. If Susan ley won’t move on this she’s gonna get rolled. If frydenbergs decision to run wasn’t made up before Bondi it is now. Ultimately it’s up to the branch in kooyong if he runs. With hammer out of the way he will probably have it in the bag now.